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US FX Market Open – Thursday, May 12, 2016: YEN EASIER AGAIN WITHIN QUIET SESSION

Posted by Marge Maresca on May 12, 2016 7:29:57 AM



Overnight Events

• USD/JPY +0.7%, EUR/USD -0.14%, GBP/USD -0.02%
• DXY +0.14%, DAX +0.4%, Brent +0.65%, Iron -3.37%
• DE Apr W/sale Px Idx -2.7% y/y vs -2.6% prev
• EZ Mar Ind. Prod. +0.2% y/y vs +0.8% prev, 1.1% exp
• Norgesbank unchanged at 0.5% as expected
• Norway Q1 GDP 1.0% vs revised -1.3% Q4, +0.1% exp
• Sweden Apr CPIF 1.4%, below mkt but matched Riksbank estimate
• BoJ Gov Kuroda: don't see any chance now of return to Lehman Bros type shock
• BoJ Gov Kuroda: oil prices showing signs of bottoming out
• Kuroda: expect gradual rise in oil prices to push up consumer prices in future
• BoJ Kuroda: Hard for Japan to weaken yen to boost exports - RTRS
• PM Abe's aide Ito: BoJ likely to ease either in June or July with eye on Q1 GDP
• BoJ Apr meet- One member-Shouldn't hesitate taking additional easing if needed
• BoJ Kuroda: big swings in fx moves that don't reflect fundamentals undesirable

Currency Summaries

• EUR/USD eases 1.1425-01 in another quiet European session
• 1.1350-1.1450 range plays are proving profitable
• Very weak EZ IP data is largely ignored
• Today's large expiries appear to be a key influence
• EUR 2.2 billion of vanilla options expiries 1.1395-1.1405

• USD/JPY has recovered from 108.23 to reach 109.25
• Clears 109.00 decent offers which were holding up bulls earlier in the session
• Bulls need to clear 109.47 - 61.8% retrace of the 111.90-105.55 fall
• Supply likely to remain quite thick up to 109.50
• EUR/JPY also higher, up from 123.69 in Asia to 124.65 in London
• Ito's BoJ easing comments hurt the yen

• EUR/CHF big mover in relatively quiet markets
• Cross falls sharply from 1.1109 Wed high to 1.1051 today
• No obvious drivers with risk and stocks on the rise
• USD/CHF pulling lower and away from daily cloud base at 0.9730
• Testing 21DMA support at 0.9680
• Chart:
• GBP/USD 1.4406-1.4457 was the European am range
• BoE MPC minutes & BoE inflation Report due 7am ET
• 9-0 Bank Rate vote consensus f/c, risk of 1 or 2 votes for cut
• EUR/GBP 0.7892-0.7919 was the European am range

• USD/CAD fell from an early Europe high 1.2879 to 1.2825
• Fall influenced by higher oil prices: WTI rose from 46.10-46.70
• 1.2825 = 1wk low (1.2829 was Wednesday’s low)

• AUD/USD topped out at 0.7348 after rising from 0.7312 amid “risk on”
• 0.7312 = early Europe low. Large 0.7300 option expiries today & Friday
• 0.7300 was Tuesday low. Option barriers tipped below 0.7300, to 0.7280

• NZD/USD is trading within strike of a 0.6830 option expiry for today’s NY cut
• NZD 322mn strike. 0.6812-0.6837 = Thursday range-to-date

Today’s events

An expiring FX option heading into the New York Cut, if close enough to the strike price, can act as a magnet for selling/buying.  If the option is large, it can generate enough trading to move the market.  

Option Expirations – (Source:ThompsonReuters)

• EUR/USD vols suffer, ECB and Brexit risk the only support
• USD/JPY  vols retraced post BoJ gains and better value now
• AUD/USD 1mth vol nears 2016 lows , 2.0 below realized
• NZD 1mth vol 1.75 premium to AUD, vs flat before RBNZ capture
• GBP gamma propped in to QIR and MPC – O/n 17.0 or 100 pips

Economic Data(Source:Bloomberg)



Topics: US FX Market Open


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