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Today’s Trading Edge: USD/CAD loonie firms up as oil gains

Posted by WorldWideMarkets . on Mar 29, 2017 7:51:30 PM

The Canadian dollar rallied as oil prices rallied and made a nine-day high after a smaller-than-expected build in US inventories.  Oil, Canada’s largest export also benefited from some technical buying as prices surged after recapturing the 200-day SMA. 

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Topics: Loonie, USDCAD, Dollar-Cad, Cad

Today’s Trading Edge: USD/CAD loonie continues to strengthen as Trump/Trudeau confirm commitment to close US-Canada cooperation

Posted by WorldWideMarkets . on Feb 13, 2017 6:57:59 PM

 

The main event for Monday was the meeting between President Trump and Prime Minister Trudeau.  The meeting was friendly as President Trump avoided answering the question of whether or not the northern border is less secure because of all the refugees Canada has accepted.  Mr. Trudeau also declined to comment on Trump’s executive order restricting immigration.   

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Topics: Loonie, USDCAD, Dollar-Cad, Cad, trading

Today’s Trading Edge: USD/CAD loonie weakness returns after BOC keeps policy steady and dovish press conference

Posted by WorldWideMarkets . on Jan 18, 2017 7:22:33 PM

 

The Bank of Canada kept interests rates unchanged at 0.50% and adjusted their quarterly monetary policy report.  GDP forecasts for 2017 were raised from 2.0% to 2.1%, and 2018 was maintained at 2.1%.  Measures of core inflation are below 2%, reflecting material excess capacity in the economy. As consumer energy prices rise and the impact of lower food prices dissipates, inflation is expected to move close to the 2% target in the months ahead and remain there throughout the projection horizon while excess capacity is being absorbed.

During the post rate decision press conference, Governor Poloz noted the Governing Council is particularly concerned about new US trade policy.  He also noted that a rate cut remains an option if downside risks prevail, a change from the neutral stance held at last month's meeting.

Both the loonie and Mexican peso saw weakness after Wilbur Ross, the commerce secretary nominee, noted that the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico would be an early priority for his department.

Price action on the USD/CAD daily chart shows that the overall move from BOC decision and press conference was bearish for the loonie after noting concerns regarding trade negotiations with the US and the possibility of more easing. Price continues to respect the psychological 1.30 handle and appears to be finding tentative resistance from the 100-day SMA, which currently trades at the 1.3277.  If the bullish stance resumes, key resistance will come from the 1.3350 to 1.3400 zone.  If we see the bullish rebound stall, major support remains the noted 1.300 handle. 

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Topics: Loonie, Bank of Canada, USDCAD

Today’s Trading Edge: Loonie soars after OPEC reaches a production cut deal, first in 8 years

Posted by WorldWideMarkets . on Sep 28, 2016 8:04:00 PM

OPEC agreed to drop production to a range of 32.5-33.0M barrels per day after the third day of meetings.  Most analysts expected no deal to be reached.  Stocks and oil related currencies rallied following the news.  The outline of the deal suggest the lower end of the production equates to a drop of almost 750K barrels per day from what OPEC produced in August.  Note OPEC pumps about 40% of global oil production.  Many details still need to be finalized. Iran is expected not to freeze production but other OPEC members will need to cut output.

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Topics: Canada, Loonie, USOIL, $OIL, USDCAD, Canadian

Today’s Trading Edge: USD/CAD rallies as BOC sees elevated risks of weak inflation and growth

Posted by WorldWideMarkets . on Sep 7, 2016 4:59:31 PM

USD/CAD snapped a four-day losing streak following the Bank of Canada (BOC) rate decision.  The Bank announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 0.5%. The BOC has cut rates twice in 2015 by total 50bps, with the last cut taking place on July 15th 2015.

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Topics: Loonie, Bank of Canada, USDCAD, Dollar-Cad, Canada Economy

 

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