(Feb 3 Friday) The GBPUSD daily chart shows a rebound of the pound from the 1.1985 low of Jan 15 to test the recent high of 1.2712 (Feb 2) which displayed a +727 pip resilient rebound to the Fibonacci 50.00% retracement level. Prior to this rebound, the chart high was 1.3492 (Sept 15) and declined to 1.1985 4 months later on Jan 15.
IThe 14 day moving average (green line) fell from 1.2590 (Dec 15) to 1.2230 (Jan 16) and has risen to 1.2480 which implies a potential short covering run in the short term run with gains perhaps being limited. The heavier 30 DMA shows a more definitive price move, which fell from 1.2500 to 1.2300 with a rather weak rebound.
There near-term resistance levels are 1.2712 (50.00% Fibo), 1.2772. (Dec 5 high) and 1.2884 (61.80% Fibo).
The immediate support levels are: 1.2460 (Jan 30 low), 1.2405 (Jan 31 low), 1.2375 and 1.2250 (Jan 18 low).
The 14 day RSI (relative strength index) shows declining peaks from the 65.05 (Dec 5) and 61.98 (Jan 24), equivalent to spot 1.2770 and 1.2700 respectively and suggests there is still weakness in the pound. The current RSI is now at 52.13.
The elliot wave chart has not shown a good recovery either above the positive territory. The most recent move shows a rise to +0.129 only (spot equivalent of 1.2700) and eased down to +0.0194.
Today, the market focus is the U.S. January jobs data with the forecst calling for a higher number. If so, the pound may be pushed lower if the dollar gains.