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Forex: Euro Fell to 1.0990 on Weak German IFO Data and Brexit Risk. EURCHF Fell to 1.0920.

Posted by Chris Advincula on Feb 23, 2016 7:32:00 AM

EURUSD: The German Feb IFO data was lower than expected and pushed the euro rate lower from 1.1050 to 1.0990 (-60 pips). The IFO Business Climate fell to 105.7 versus the median estimate of 106.7. The euro was also weakened along side with the decline of the british pound as Brexit risks weighed on the euro. The EURUSD also came under pressure on EURCHF selling which fell from 1.1020 to 1.0930 (-90 pips) on swiss franc safe haven buying interest. The earliest support seen at 1.0980 which was the Jan 15 high might be fragile.

GBPUSD: The pound made a modest rebound in early Europe after the BOE MPC member Shafik said that the next interest rate move will be up. He adds he expects wages to grow about 2-3% and will refrain from voting a rate hike until convinced on sustained growth. The pound rose from 1.4100 to 1.4150 (+50 pips) very briefly as the Brexit EU referendum looms large and weighs heavily on the pound. Analysts however, expect the BOE will wait until 2019 before raising rates. 

USDJPY: The Japanese yen gained against the major currencies on safe haven demand after China lowered the yuan's fixing rate to 6.5297 against the dollar (-0.1% lower than expected) amid the uncertainty of the Brexit risk. Nikkei closed -0.37% and European stocks fell while WTI Oil fell to 32.50. Next support 11.60 low from Feb 12. Minor short covering rebound to 112.10 as of 12:15 GMT.

EURCHF: The euro fell against the strong buying demand for the swiss franc on safe haven action. EURCHF fell from 1.1025 to 1.0925 on the intraday chart (-100 pips) once again on the looming Brexit risk and the lower than expected results of the German IFO data. The SNB President Jordan said that the swiss franc remains considerably overvalued, speaking in Frankfurt. However, the statement failed to prevent the swiss franc buying demand today. Watch for the SNB intervention which may push the EURCHF higher.

 ChartA.2.23.2016.jpg

 

Topics: $USDJPY, GBPUSD, EURUSD, EURCHF, European Session, Forex Fundamentals

 

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