Sometimes it takes a while to get the market's attention.
The dangers to the euro and the European Union from the Catalonia independence vote are obvious to even the most cursory examination. Yet to date the united currency has fallen just 3.2 percent (1.1710 11:24 Eastern) from its 33 month high against the dollar at 1.2092 on September 9th.
Spanish equity markets have been whipsawed by political developments. The Ibex 35 index fell 2.9 percent Wednesday on expectations that the regional govenment of Carles Puigdemont would seek immediate independence. Thursday's report that portions of the Catalan adminstration are worried that a unilateral declaration would seriously damage the economy of Spain's most productive region and the government may take a more conciliatory stance, sent equities soaring 2.3 percent.
The euro is on the cusp of the first major support level of its January 3rd to September 8th run, at 1.1702. This is backed up by the minor Fibonacci level (23.6%) at 1.1678.
The next support is the July 26th low of 1.1611 followed by a minor level at 1.1470. The first major Fibonacci (38.2%) is not until 1.1422. Two minor supports are at 1.1342 and 1.1285 with the 50% Fibonacci line at 1.1216 and the important 61.8% level at 1.1009.
Chief Market Strategist
WorldWideMarkets Online Trading
Charts: Thomson/Reuters, Alpha Trader