Price action on USD/CHF has been mostly bearish over the past two trading months. The downward slide coincides with an overall weakness against the U.S. dollar that appears to be gaining steam as expectations grow for the Federal Reserve to be very slow in hiking interest rates.
Despite recent weakness, the U.S. dollar may soon outperform against currencies that may have a central bank whose dovish policies appear to be firmly in place. The greenback may have soon have stronger gains to the yen, euro, and Swiss franc.
The USD/CHF daily chart shown above shows a potential bullish Gartley pattern that may have formed at the end of last week. The key low of .9071 may now provide major support if the pattern holds up. Further bullish momentum may target .9500 handle initially and ultimately target a run towards .9750.
If the reversal pattern is invalidated, major support will come from the psychological .90 handle.
The Trade: Buy USD/CHF .9325, with a stop loss at .9275, and take profit at .9425. The risk/reward ratio is 1:2.
Edward J Moya
Senior Market Strategist
WorldWideMarkets Online Trading