Chart: WorldWideMarkets Alpha Trader
The CPI data was better than expected and supposedly positive for Canadian Dollar buying. However, the market had initially reacted more to the weak Canadian Retail Sales and pushed the loonie lower and USD higher to test 1.2720 from 1.2670. As the New York morning session got underway, demand for the canadian dollar soon picked-up when the market started to digest the positive CPI data outweighed the weak Retail Sales.
Combined with USD selling interest and weekend position squaring while Europe exits, the USDCAD rate fell breaking the support at 1.2660 to ease down to 1.2636. (13:00 GMT)
Canadian Feb NSA CPI rose +0.9% m/m above the +0.7% median forecast rising on energy price rebound. +1.0% y/y as expected. The core CPI rose +0.6 m/m as expected.
The Jan Retail Sales fell more than expected to -1.7%, below the -0.8% forecast compared to -1.8% previously in Dec. The data is another month of dissapointment that could preciptate to a downward revision of Bank of Canada's 1st QTR projection.
After the recent 404 pip range H 1.2834 L 1.2430 and volatility of the Canadian Dollar in the past two days, the loonie has entered a consolidation phase range of 1.2720-1.2600.
The 14-day moving average intraday resistance is 1.2700 and pointing down to 1.2650.