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Euro in New York

Posted by Joseph Trevisani on Sep 15, 2014 4:49:00 PM

Euro-dollar opened at 1.2912 in the US trading (8:30 am) just off the low of the combined 1.2909-1.2078 Asian and European range. The pair opened on the high, fell and recovered in Asia and was then offered throughout the European session, reaching the low at 8:14 am (NY time).

Wednesday's FOMC meeting and Thursday's ECB targeted long term financing operation (TLTRO) and the Scottish independence vote are all likely negatives for the euro.  The Fed will confirm that securities purchases will end on schedule, the ECB has is on record in favor of a weaker euro and though the Scottish vote seems close, the risk is on the downside for the euro. Approval of separation from the UK would be a huge shock for Europe and all its institutions, much greater than what has already been priced into the currency or financial markets.

Early American trading NY saw the euro boosted by US industrial production and capacity utilization information, both much poorer than expected. The euro climbed from 1.2911 to 1.2951 within 90 minutes of the release at 8:30 am despite much stronger than forecast Empire Manufacturing data from the New York Federal Reserve. A dip to 1.2932 was followed by another run to 1.2951 which stalled.  The united currency then then sold off to 1.2930 on euros cross sales. The afternoon dealt calmly between 1.2929 and 1.2945 with a single spike higher, at about 3:30 pm but contained within the overall range. 

The euro closed at 1.2940


Chart: Bloomberg

eur sept 15 min



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