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Euro in New York: And its not even August

Posted by Joseph Trevisani on Jul 23, 2014 4:49:00 PM

The euro opened in New York at 1.3466 (8:30 am) after having rallied from a new low for the year at 1.3455. The recovery stretched to 1.3473 in London, followed by a dip to 1.3463 and a final European rally to 1.3474, the day's high about 90 minutes before the New York open.

Yesterday's breech of 1.3477, the previous 2014 low,  has at least temporairly established a clear resistance line reinforced by today's multiple attempts to regain it. 

The first NY run at the top made it to 1.3473. The sharp subsequent fall was due to EMU July consumer confidence at 10:00 am, -8.4 vs expected  -7.5, May -7.5. The euro fell to 1.3458, rebounded just as rapidly to 1.3471 and  then hit 1.3462 at the London close. 

The  afternoon shifted to a slightly lower range of 1.3456 with one touch at 1.3455 and 1.3465 on the top. Within that narrow range the euro reversed direction at least eight times but could nto sustain momentum on either side. 

In the early afternoon the International Monetary Fund announced a 0.3% cut its U.S. GDP growth projection to 1.7%   This is the second reduction by the IMF in its US forecast. In April the Washington-based fund had predicted U.S. GDP would expand 2.8 percent this year. That original projection was reduced to 2.0 percent in June.

There was minimal market reacton even though this assessment is considerably weaker than both the Federal Reserve's central projection of 2.1 percent to 2.3 percent and its overall range of 1.9 percent to 2.4 percent.

The Fed revised its estimates at the June FOMC. The central tendency  was reduced from 2.8 percent to 3.0 percent and the range from 2.2 percent to 2.6 percent.  

The euro closed at 1.3463.

Statistics tomorrow: EMU, German and French Markit manufacturing, services and composite PMIs; U.S. initial jobless claims, Markit manufacturing PMI, new home sales.

WorldWideMarkets Online Trading

Chart: Bloomberg




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