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Euro in New York: The Complacency Ambit

Posted by Joseph Trevisani on Jul 21, 2014 4:45:00 PM

The euro opened at 1.3517 in New York (8:30 am) just above the day's low at 1.3512 30 minutes earlier. 

Tokyo had uncharacteristically taken the euro to the top at 1.3649, with a stop/short covering run that ignited at 1.3540, the high since last Wednesday, lasted about 15 minutes and left London, which came in about 90 minutes later, little to do.

The IMF increased its estimate for German 2014 economic growth to 1.9% from 1.7% and said Germany should boost infrastructure spending to help shrink its current account surplus which the IMF called larger than "desirable".  The announcement had no more effect on the market than its advice is likely to have on the German government. 

European traders bought the euro in a flurry just after their open (2:00 am New York) but the 1.3543 top was sold and within 10 minutes it had backed 15 points and within an hour it was at 1.3519 well below the start of the Tokyo run.  For the next three hours the euro traded between 1.3520 and 1.3530, breaking down to 1.3512 at the end and ranging back to 1.3526 through the New York open. 

After that early NY top at 1.3526 the euro traded a series  of  dips and recoveries, first down to 1.3516, back to 1.3524, down to 1.3517, and finally a  return to 1.3524, all with contracting volatility and volume. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 8:30 am, while weaker than the 0.18 forecast at 0.12 had no effect on volatility. After the release the entire range was 10 points 1.3516 to 1.3526 and in the afternoon the range was 5 points 1.3518 to 1.3523. 

The potential for one of the world's active conflicts to overturn the complacency that has settled on the world's trading markets would seem to be high with Ukraine and Gaza heading the list. But danger lies with the viewer and there is no indication that traders see anything but calm markets ahead.

There is no European data on Tuesday but US CPI for June will be issued at 8:30 am New York.

 

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Chart: WWM Alpha Trader

alpha euro

 

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