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Euro in New York: Knocking at the Door Part 2?

Posted by Joseph Trevisani on Jul 16, 2014 5:34:00 PM

The euro opened at 1.3537 in New York just above its European low of 1.3531, Tokyo's low was 1.3557.  Sllippage in the euro crosses, eur/stg traded below 0.7900 for the first time since Sept 2012 and eur/yen was offered from almost the London open kept the pressure on the united currency. 

A slightly lower euro zone external trade balance and information that the euro's percentage of worldwide FX reserves fell by 0.9 percent probably did not help euro sentiment but neither had any direct effect on trading.  Nor did news that  the Portuguese Banco Espirito Santo acquired additional capital  after its parent company  missed a debt payment yesterday. 

U.S. PPI at 8:30 am, 0.4% vs expected 0.2%, core as forecast at 0.2%, lowered the euro to 1.3526 twice with a 1.3534 bounce in between. Industrial production and capacity utilization for June at 9:15 am, both weaker than forecast (0.2% vs expected 0.3%; 79.1% vs expected 79.3%) and the July NAHB Housing Index at 10:00 am (53 vs. expected 50) had no effect and the euro slipped to 1.3527 at mid-morning then managing a final bounce to 1.3540.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen's second day of Congressional testimony at 10:00 am reiterated the recent Fed themes of an improving economy, unsatisfactory job and wage growth, long term low rates, and policy flexibility as did the Beige Book  released at 2:00 pm. 

By the London close at 12:00 pm the euro was back at 1.3529, from there until the close the range was 9 points, 1.3521 to 1.3530.  

The two year trend line at 1.3517, and daily lows at  1.3513 (6/16) and 1.3512 (6/12) were unchallenged though an attempt seems inevtiable.   The June 5th low at 1.3503 will likely be a mere note if the trend line is breeched. The year's low at 1.3477 may offer more formidable support but even this will probably cause no more than hesitation if the trend line gives way. Stops below 1.3515, 1.3500 and 1.3477.



Charts: Bloomberg




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