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New York Doldrums

Posted by Joseph Trevisani on Apr 15, 2014 5:28:00 PM

The euro opened at 1.3796 in New York in the middle of a very tight 30 point range (1.3791-1.3821) from the two previous sessions.

Mixed German April ZEW business confidence data (current situation 59.5 vs expected 51.5, March 51.3; expectations 43.2 vs 45.0, March 46.6) had brought the euro from the 1.3791 low  to 1.3810 where it ran out of energy  and dropped back to 1.3793 before edging up to the open.

Early New York trading saw stronger than forecast March U.S. CPI (0.2% vs 1%; core 0.2% vs 0.1%) that pushed the euro back to the day's low at 1.3791 but that was immediately countered by a much weaker than expected April Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30 am (1.29 vs expected 8.00, March 5.61; new orders -2.77, March 5.61) which pushed the euro back to 1.3811.

That defined the range until just after 10:00 am when news stories of confrontations in Eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian government troops and separatists sparked a rally 1.3833.

Equities were lower at this time and continued down in fits and starts until just after 1:00 pm when they commenced a rally that brought the Dow from 16,063 back to 16,262 where it closed.

The euro dropped from its high back to 1.3810 on good cross selling. A dip in US Treasury yields with the 10-year Treasury moving below 2.60% sponsored another euro rally which reached 1.3821. From there the market coasted to close at 1.3814.

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Chart: Bloomberg

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