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The Dollar Waits for New Advice--New York Euro Summary

Posted by Joseph Trevisani on Feb 25, 2014 4:44:00 PM

The euro opened (8:00 am ET) at 1.3752 after a 1.3730-63 range in Asian and Europe. Early New York did nothing to challenge the overnight stasis. From the open until 10:00 am the range was 15 points 1.3752-67. The FHFA and Case-Shiller housing price indices for December at 9:00 am had no effect. Though both were better than forecast the price information is almost two months old and not considered indicative.

February consumer confidence from the Conference Board was a different story. Mildly weaker than predicted at 78.1 vs. 80.0 and with a unusually large downgrade to January to 79.4 from 80.7 it seconded some of the poorer statistics from the U.S. in the  past few weeks. The euro rallied slightly from 1.3759 to 1.3764 but then began a rapid collapse to 1.3716. The day's low was reached in just 23 minutes prompted by an identical drop in the sterling.

Various logic was applied to the sterling fall: cable was overbid headed to the 4:00 pm London fix, profit taking on long positions, but stops just below 1.6700 and 1.6680 seem the most likely culprit. The pound fell from 1.6723 at 10:03 am to 1.6642 just 20 minutes later. With little happening on its own the euro was dragged along for the ride.

After the sterling drop the euro recovered to 1.3730, spent about 30 minutes there then spiked to 1.3760 in line with the London fix. With the London sterling action over the euro drifted to 1.3750, skidded to 1.3737 just before 4:00 pm and up to close at 1.3746.


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ScreenHunter 2147 Feb. 25 18.57

 

 

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