It has been more than two months since the euro traded below 1.3500. In those eight weeks the currency has moved to within 50 points eight times, four times in January. It has moved with 25 points six times, three in early December and on each of the last three sessions, including today, the 21st. Yet the 1.3500 level is not obvious support.
The Fibonacci retracements of the 1.2754-1.3892 (July 9th-December 27th) climb are either distant or broken. The first Fibonacci (23.6%) at 1.3624 did prove a buffer in December marking the bottom three times from the December 5th break of 1.3600 until the January 3rd drop back down, but since then has had little relevance. Marking the top or not in January. The second Fibonacci is at 1.3461 (38.2%) and the 61.8% retracement is distant at 1.3191.
Since the euro broke higher on September 18th, when the Fed decided not to initiate its quantitative easing taper, 1.3500 has not played any appreciable role in trading.
In the month from September 18th until October 17th when the euro took a vault higher, it was crossed on a majority of days with no noticeable reference. The same was true from November 1st to November 22nd when it was crossed with impunity. In December 1.3525 appeared more relevant marking the low on three days, 12/2 1.3525, 12/3 1.3523 and 12/4 1.3527. Only this month has it seemed pertinent, more or less being the low on the last three days, 1/17 1.3516, 1/20 1.3506 and today the 21st 1.3515. Moving averages give no reference either: 14 day 1.3611; 55 day 1.3604; 100 day 1.3560.
The next likely support is at the second Fibonacci at 1.3461. The appearance of 1.3500 seems to be more chance than any market outcome.
Chart: WWM Alpha Trader