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Drum Roll Please for Non-farm Payrolls

Posted by WorldWideMarkets . on Oct 22, 2013 3:24:00 AM
The number we have all been waiting for at 8.30 am EDT, U.S. non-farm payrolls for September. Current consensus expectation 180,000.
The dollar will undoubtedly rally if it beats expectations and fall if it misses consensus. But it is all going to be short term chatter.
The thinking as everyone now knows is that jobs growth will prompt the Fed to taper stimulus which will be good for the dollar.
Yet with the government shutdown and debt ceiling talks having hurt growth expectations if not growth in reality, there is no way the Fed is going to taper in October or perhaps even December and January. So the dollar will have a weak fourth quarter and perhaps even a weak first quarter of 2014.
No one should forget that come next year we may again be going through the same protracted negotiations to get a debt and spending deals done. And does anyone really think that between now and February Congress is going to negotiate a long term solution to any of the nation’s fiscal ills given the hostility and division in Congress and the country?
Watch the chatter in the dollar but don’t expect a confirmed trading pattern to come out of today’s data. Investors are just too jittery.trading jobs

Topics: Fed, Federal Reserve, US Dollar, European Session, non-farm payrolls, FOMC, USD, NFP

 

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