As noted, today will see the release of the Fed minutes from the September meeting where investors were shocked by the decision to leave policy unchanged after what many had thought was months of telegraphing from the Fed that September would be the month for tapering to start.
Given the government shutdown, the Fed’s decision is probably justified in hindsight. On the other hand tapering would have removed one uncertainty.
So what does on look for? An indication of how close the decision to leave policy unchanged actually was. Even if it was close, October is likely off the table because of the shutdown but December is still a possibility for tapering to start.
Then is there further data necessary for the decision? That gets messy given the shutdown will delay at least some of the releases if not the tally and calculation. Then, any clues on the pace of tapering or when the Fed would like to see it end and a return to normal policy?
Even if there is a sudden resolution of both the debt ceiling and the shutdown, the minutes are likely to cause some volatility. And it is only 19 days until the next Fed meeting.