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The Jobs Report Without the Jobs Report

Posted by WorldWideMarkets . on Oct 4, 2013 3:14:00 AM

The U.S. jobs report is still said to be delayed without any movement on the Government shutdown so just a quick recap on the other employment data this week for how the jobs report may have come out.

U.S. private employers added fewer jobs than expected in September, just 166,000, according to payroll processor ADP's National Employment Report. The consensus forecast was for a gain of 180,000 jobs. August's private payrolls gains were revised to 159,000 from the previously reported 176,000. Though off by about 31,000 jobs in the last 11 periods, the direction of ADP implies payrolls would have been lower than the 180,000 expected.
The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits edged up 1,000 to 308,000 last week but remained at pre-recession levels and below the consensus forecast of 315,000, indicating a growing labor market. The four-week average of new claims, which smooths out weekly volatility, fell 3,750 to 305,000, the lowest level since May 2007. On this basis, the labor market remains growing albeit slowly.

The Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. layoffs reports showed the number of planned layoffs at U.S. firms fell 20 percent in September. Employers announced 40,289 layoffs last month, down from 50,462 in August. On balance that would seem positive until one considers the September job cuts were 19 percent higher than the same month last year. For 2013 so far, employers have announced 387,384 losses, on par with the 386,000 seen in the first nine months of last year.

The employment component of The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services index fell to 52.7 in September from a six-month peak of 57 in August. It was the lowest reading since May. But the employment component of the ISM manufacturing index jumped to 55.4, its highest since June, 2012 or 15 months. It stood at 53.3 in August.  Both reports seemingly cancel each other out in the broader picture.

Time will tell but the job report was most likely on course for the consensus forecast of 180,000 and the U.S. economy continues to create jobs but at a less than helpful jobs


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