Ongoing antics in Washington DC aside, today’s data trading highlight should be the release of the September ADP national employment survey given that job creation is critical to the Fed signing off on the stimulus tapering decision.
Forecasts call for 180,000 jobs. Though a notoriously unreliable indicator for non-farm payrolls, current estimate for 180,000 new jobs and possibly to be released two days later, it will nonetheless be closely scrutinized for clues on the official government number and if too far removed from the forecast will prompt a flurry of sell side research revisions. There are still investors focused on the big picture so the dollar may gain if the ADP number is good but sell off if the ADP print is weaker than forecast.
Thursday’s Challenger layoffs for September, weekly initial jobless claims and the employment index in the ISM services PMI for September will be further second tier clues on the state of the U.S. job market.
Of course, government data may be delayed because of the shut down but the minute a deal is reached, the data will be back on tap. If no other employment data is released bar Challenger lay-offs this week because of the shut down, then ADP will take on very large significance, indeed much larger than normal.