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Aussie Shrugs Off RBA Minutes Release

Posted by WorldWideMarkets . on Sep 18, 2013 3:23:00 AM
Flying in the face of expectations and what Australian authorities are hoping for, the aussie rose to near 94 U.S. cents, a three month high, after the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s September meeting. The minutes suggested no imminent rate cut but equally that the easing cycle hasn’t finished. The fundamentals of the Australian economy with the mining slowdown would indicate that the Australian dollar should be falling. Equally, the Australian authorities want the dollar to fall to stimulate other areas of the economy that lost their competitive edge in recent years and pick up some of the demand slack as the mining sector tapers off. But investors at least have not given up on the aussie. It could be a bet that low Australian rates and an ultimately lower exchange rate will stimulate the economy. It could be a bet that China demand is going to pick up again. It’s more likely that the debate over U.S. tapering of stimulus has kept the aussie alive another month. That last scenario still leaves the aussie likely trading lower and targets for a year out remain closer to 85 U.S. cents than to 90 U.S. cents. And if need be the RBA will cut benchmark rates again as the U.S. stimulus ends completely and the Fed begins to look at tightening. Those who took a bet on the aussie this month have done well with a 5 percent gain but it is never good strategy to fight a central bank, even one in a relatively small nation such as Australia. aussie trading
 

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