With the ADP National Employment Report delayed by a day after the U.S. long weekend and being released just 15 minutes before the weekly initial jobless claims data expect some volatility at the New York open today, Thursday. ADP is not a complete gauge of the official government number, slated for tomorrow, but is always used by FX investors in placing last minute trading bets before the non-farm payrolls report.
Today’s ADP report has added influence because of the proximity to the weekly claims number. Usually FX trading investors shrug off the weekly number but a large drop a few weeks ago caught everyone by surprise and sent the dollar higher. It all ties into what the Fed will do at its next policy meeting regarding the slowing or tapering of its asset buying program. Anything related to employment now gets extra scrutiny. Good numbers today will send the dollar higher, bad numbers pull it back a little. Mixed numbers and the flow will be over in minutes while investors debate the outlook for the number tomorrow.