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Forex Trading: USD/JPY poised for a breakout ?

Posted by Akhilesh Ganti on Aug 22, 2013 9:00:00 PM

Dollar/Yen's steady advance from its 9/14/2012 low of 77.13 culminated on 5/24/2013 as the pair reached a high of 103.74. The impetus for the move was Abenomics - Japan's version of QE that was designed to jumpstart their stagnant economy. The subsequent correction saw the pair decline to 93.79 which was within striking distance of the 38.2% retracement level of the upmove from 77.13 to 103.74 that measures out to 93.57.

usdjpy 082213 W
{chart:Bloomberg}(click to enlarge)

Since then, it has been carving out a symmetrical triangle chart pattern, making lower highs and higher lows as it looks to correct its extremely overbought state that was a result of its impulsive multi-week move. Triangle chart patterns are by definition consolidative in nature and the symmetrical triangle is one where a breakout to the upside or downside is a confirmation of a trend in that direction.

Given the reaction that this pair had to yesterday's FOMC minutes, the fact that the longer term trend is bullish, and that the interest rate dynamics favor the US over Japan, the most likely resolution for this pattern is to the upside. A conclusive breach of the 99.25 level on a weekly close should see the pair target the psychologically important 100 level which, if pierced, would bring into focus the 103.74 highs on a multi-week basis.

The bounce from 93.79 stalled at 101.53 - a move of 774 pips (see Weekly chart above). If one were to add that to the recent weekly low at 95.81, then a potential price objective at 103.55 would emerge . Conversely, a break of that same low at 95.81 would be needed to negate the bullish view and shift the focus back to the 93.79 lows.


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