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Aussie Still Looking Vulnerable to a Rate Cut

Posted by WorldWideMarkets . on Aug 7, 2013 3:49:00 AM
After the RBA 25 bps rate cut to 2.5 percent on Tuesday there was immediate talk of another cut of 25 bps but the statement was not so dovish and the next meeting is on Sept 3, just a few days before the Australian federal election on September 7. The RBA could cut again quickly but rate futures are only pricing in a 16.1 percent chance of 25bps on Sept 3 with an 83.9 percent chance Australia’s central bank stands pat at that meeting. Yet with the Australian economy rapidly decelerating it’s likely there will be another cut before year end. There was some outside talk the RBA would cut 50 bps at this meeting. The aussie gained a little after the cut on the statement but then lost those gains and went lower. The aussie is still looking at major support at 85 U.S. cents and anything above 90 is now resistance in daily trading. The Australian unit has come back into neutral territory using the 14-day exponential relative strength index print of 36.622 but it appears short term strength. There is too much working against the aussie. aussie trading
 

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