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Aussie Outlook Still Looking Poor; Chinese GDP Ahead

Posted by WorldWideMarkets . on Jul 11, 2013 3:52:00 AM
The aussie briefly did a little better intraday and may do so again but don’t be swayed by the cosmetic moves. China will release its second quarter gross domestic product data on Monday local China time and any miss from the consensus expectation of 7.5 percent year-over-year is immediately going to send the aussie lower. Foreshadowing the GDP number was a warning from the world’s second largest economy on the outlook for trade after June exports fell 3.1 percent compared with the anticipated 3.7 percent rise. It was the first drop in exports in 17 months. Exports to the U.S., China's biggest export market, fell 5.4 percent. Exports to the EU slipped 8.3 percent. While the aussie largely shrugged off the Chinese export numbers after a sustained selling off on other negative news in recent months, the China growth number will be harder to ignore. Australian rate futures are indicating a 57.5 percent chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next meeting on August 6 so no help from the RBA despite the surprise increase in Australian employment in June.aussie trading

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