Economists consensus estimate for the official U.S. jobs report is for 165,000 new jobs overall, 175,000 private payrolls and an unemployment rate of 7.5 percent. Too close to 100,000 or even below and the dollar sells off. Above 200,000 and the dollar will rally on expectations that QE will end sooner rather than later. It’s the final data point and event risk of the week and in many ways has overshadowed even the slew of central bank meetings.
The national ADP report showed U.S. private employers added 188,000 jobs in June, better than the consensus forecast for 160,000 new jobs. Though notoriously unreliable for anything other than the direction of the official report, nonetheless the ADP report bolstered optimism for an upside surprise.
New claims for unemployment benefits, released Wednesday 15 minutes after ADP to avoid the Independence Day holiday, fell for a second straight week indicating a steady increase in job gains.