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Forex Trading: the Indian Rupee Falls Out of History

Posted by Joseph Trevisani on Jun 24, 2013 11:26:00 AM

The rupee has moved far beyond its historical boundaries against the dollar, but in percentage terms the 12.8% depreciation this year (Feb 6, 52.8900--today 59.6750) while large is hardly unprecedented.

Prior lows for the rupee versus dollar had been 52.1800 in March 2009, 54.3050 in December 2011 and 57.3275 last June. The Brazilian Real has lost 16.05% in the same period post January and many emerging markets and commodity currencies have suffered large devaluations recently.

Almost any oscillator will give an oversold on reading on the rupee given the speed and slope of the decline and that is true of the RSI and MACD indicators as illustrated, (the charts depict dollar/rupee). The movement in the currency is based on serious denigration in the fundamental outlook for the Indian economy and the prospective change in Federal Reserve policy and the rise in U.S. interest rates. The decline of the rupee is unlikely to be halted by any technical consideration though consolidation can be expected when the original impetus of the drop is spent.

Redemptions from equity and debt markets are probably driving the plunge and liquidity seems to be an issue as well.  The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has limited gold imports and said it could intervene to limit volatility and may have done so already but with the volume at $70 billion a day (spot, forward, on and off shore) and a reported  $272 billon in FX reserves its ability to do so effectively against the market is probably limited.   As the reaction to the Fed policy shift normalizes the rupee could rebound to 58.9645 and then 57.3275

Joseph Trevisani

Chief Market Strategist


Charts: Bloomberg

ScreenHunter 1344 Jun. 24 11.36


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