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ADP not an accurate indicator but is a precursor of the jobs report

Posted by WorldWideMarkets . on Jun 6, 2013 3:28:00 AM

ADP has never been particularly accurate indicator for size even as it is closely watched for clues on the U.S. non-farm payroll report. But given the focus on jobs for indications of when the Fed may taper QE, it has increased its importance. Wednesday’s number of 135,000 vs consensus of 165,000 for May at least sets up the theme for disappointment on the 170,000 expectation for non-farm payrolls on Friday. The caveat is that last mont, the ADP under-estimated the private sector rise in non-farm payrolls by 57k, or nearly 30 percent.describe the imageNow look to initial weekly jobless claims, expectation 345,000, for a further clue. While the weekly number is really a trend, given the supreme focus on jobs, investors are looking for any guidance on how soon the Fed will begin the end of easy money.

 

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