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Watch for Japanese corporate players changing bets on weaker yen

Posted by WorldWideMarkets . on May 28, 2013 2:01:00 AM

Japanese stocks continue to be volatile with the short term trend looking to the downside rven as the stabilized Tuesday but perhaps the momentum is now just feeding on itself until all the naysayers are squeezed out even with a few up days in between,. The downside now seems simultaneously sparked by concern about Chinese economic growth and a spike in JGB. But Chinese momentum is still on pace even with a few short term hiccups and Abenomics is all about reinflating the economy. The minutes of the BOJ’s April 26 meeting indicated some concerns about appearing contradictory with JGB purchases pressuring yields alongside a pledge on a price target but those concerns appear limited to volatility in markets. If anything, there is likely to be a selloff in JGB while the yen also sells off, leaving the dollar/yen upside view of 105 intact. As for the Chinese data, China wants stability and has almost no choice but to do everything to keep economic growth close to the scale of recent years. And if it can’t, there is more likely to be impact on the aussie than the yen in the short term. Of course, if dollar/yen pushes to 100 and Japanese corporates and exporters change their bets, expect either Japanese authorities to double their efforts or more volatility. So far, and today appears positive for the dollar, large players are holding to the theme of a weaker yen.


 

 

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