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Technical Analysis: Aussie weakness targets June 2012 lows

Posted by Akhilesh Ganti on May 22, 2013 8:35:00 PM

audusd 052213 W

AUD/USD, which had given indications of staging a corrective rally over the past few sessions, has resumed its downward journey as it pierced the 0.9711 low made on 05/17/2013. The currency has been one of the worst performers over the past few weeks as fears of economic underperformance have forced the RBA to cut rates thereby eroding its yield advantage. Couple that with the perception that the FED is set to taper its QE policies and you have the recipe for further weakness going forward. The downward move has been quite unidirectional since it breached the key support at 1.0101. The pair had traded within the 1.0625 - 1.0101 range since 06/29/2012, which measures out to .0524(524 pips)(click on chart to enlarge). If one were to try and project a target, then subtracting .0524 from 1.0101 would give us 0.9577 as a viable destination point. This also coincides with 0.9582 which is significant as it was the low established during the week of 06/01/2012 before the rally to 1.0625 commenced. The pair is clearly oversold but, at this juncture, only a move back above 0.9850 would relieve the extreme bearishness that the unit is exhibiting and it would have to break back above parity to negate the overall bearish theme.

{chart:Bloomberg}

 

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