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Don't bet against the Fed

Posted by WorldWideMarkets . on May 21, 2013 3:10:00 AM
describe the imageBank of Japan monetary policy meeting beginning today and concluding tomorrow will be a focus given the yen’s action on Monday after Economy Minister Akira Amari said the Japanese unit’s strength had largely corrected and further weakness could damage the local economy. But given Tokyo’s commitment to stoking economic growth through easier monetary policy, many analysts are saying buy the dollar on dips. On the other side, the U.S. economy continues to strengthen based on available data and not enough significant U.S. data on Tuesday to deflect from that notion.  Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony on Wednesday to the congressional Joint Economic Committee will be closely scrutinized. The price pressure pushing the greenback higher is clearly investors betting that the Fed is going to cut back on QE or even exit sooner rather than later. While it may not be the same as raising rates and putting the screws in directly, it is the first step. Any indication from Bernanke that he and the Fed are thinking about ending QE could push the dollar higher, particularly against the yen but also the euro. Conversely, any negative comments on the U.S. economy will see the dollar move in the opposite direction. Whatever tack one takes today, don’t bet against the Fed.
 

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