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Marge Maresca

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EUR/USD likely leads another dollar decline

Posted by Marge Maresca on Aug 25, 2017 11:19:06 AM

EUR/USD likely leads another dollar decline
Traders should expect a softer dollar and stronger EUR after Jackson Hole. Fed events this year have mostly been preceded by speculation about rate rises and followed by markets pricing out future Fed tightening. The amount of hikes priced by Fed funds over the next two years fell to a new low this week, suggesting the pattern is repeated today. Even if the Fed chair were to signal the possibility of another hike this year, huge yield advantages still favour many emerging market currencies. If she does not the dollar will go down broadly and is likely to underperform versus EUR. Draghi may try to dampen expectations for a taper but won't kill off the idea. Both the IFO, which is close to its 26 year peak, and solid eurozone PMI data support a stronger EUR. The key is that EUR/USD has consolidated huge gains near trend highs irrespective of large spec longs. If Draghi fails to quash hawks EUR/USD may fly.



US FX Market Open –Tuesday August 22, 2017: US Dollar better bid through Europe

Posted by Marge Maresca on Aug 22, 2017 7:32:21 AM



Topics: US FX Market Open

Stocks lead USD/JPY down - GBP remains on track for a deeper retreat

Posted by Marge Maresca on Aug 21, 2017 3:22:55 PM

Stocks to lead USD/JPY down
The weight of losing bets on a higher USD/JPY combined with soft stocks suggests USD/JPY tests key support. Stocks are also set to test major support and while there is cause to buy initial tests of these supports for both USD/JPY and stocks, a break would spark a much bigger decline. USD/JPY traders have been long dollars and losing money for weeks but are now faced by the developing bearish picture for the Nikkei. Tokyo futures have dumped around 500 points since staging a bearish break below the daily Ichimoku cloud. A test of the 200-DMA and 50% retracement of the April/June rise 19250/40 looks very likely. Like USD/JPY, equity traders are also long, but unlike FX traders stock traders are likely making money. Booking a profit is a far easier decisions and made more likely by the proximity to Jackson Hole. As a result stocks will heap pressure on losing USD/JPY bets likely resulting in a 108 test.


Topics: Currency Market

US FX Market Open –Friday August 18, 2017: EUR/JPY a standout mover in Europe

Posted by Marge Maresca on Aug 18, 2017 11:39:57 AM

Overnight Events


Topics: US FX Market Open

US FX Market Open –Wednesday August 16, 2017: ECB's Draghi wants to delay policy debate

Posted by Marge Maresca on Aug 16, 2017 9:20:43 AM



Topics: US FX Market Open


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